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Geopolitics fuel grain market volatility

31 May 2026

Key takeaways • GCC countries have not imported any grain products via the Strait of Hormuz since 28 February; Iran has been importing more at Chabahar, but volumes there cannot offset the loss via the Strait • Over 40 vessels carrying more than 2 Mt of fertiliser remain bottled in the Middle East G

Geopolitical instability is severely disrupting global grain trade routes, with GCC nations halting grain imports via the Strait of Hormuz since 28 February. While Iran has increased intake at Chabahar Port, these volumes fail to compensate for the broader supply chain collapse. Currently, over 40 vessels carrying more than 2 million tonnes of fertiliser remain stranded in the Middle East, exacerbating maritime logistics challenges. This volatility underscores the fragility of essential commodity shipping lanes amidst rising regional maritime security tensions.

These disruptions necessitate strict adherence to the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code, specifically Part A, Section 4.4, which mandates rigorous risk assessments for vessels operating in high-risk areas. Compliance departments must ensure that Ship Security Plans (SSP) are updated to reflect current threat levels in the Persian Gulf. Furthermore, under SOLAS Chapter XI-2, masters must maintain constant vigilance and coordinate closely with regional maritime security centres to ensure that cargo integrity and crew safety remain prioritised during these prolonged operational delays.

Masters and navigating officers must remain hyper-vigilant regarding transit corridors and potential security escalations. These officers are required to conduct thorough pre-voyage risk assessments and maintain enhanced bridge watches while navigating near the Strait of Hormuz. It is critical that they monitor official notices to mariners and maintain clear communication with charterers regarding extended anchorage durations, ensuring that onboard security protocols are strictly enforced to mitigate risks associated with the current regional instability.

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