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Strait of Hormuz closure risks greatest global energy supply shock in decades, Wood Mackenzie warns

22 May 2026

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses the single greatest threat to global energy markets in decades, according to a new Horizons report from Wood Mackenzie, Strait Talking: Iran War Scenarios and the Future of Energy. More than 11 million barrels per day (b/d) of Gulf crude and condensa

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents the most severe threat to global energy security in decades, according to a recent Wood Mackenzie report. With over 11 million barrels per day of crude and condensate transiting this vital chokepoint, any escalation involving Iranian naval forces could paralyze tanker traffic. Vessels like the VLCCs currently navigating the Persian Gulf face immediate risks of detention or seizure, potentially disrupting supply chains from ports like Jebel Ali and Ras Tanura.

From a regulatory perspective, ship operators must strictly adhere to the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code, specifically Part A, Section 4, regarding security levels and risk mitigation. Compliance departments are currently reviewing SOLAS Chapter XI-2 requirements to ensure robust onboard security measures are active. Furthermore, adherence to the latest BIMCO 'Hormuz Strait' clauses is essential for managing contractual liabilities and insurance premiums under current MARPOL Annex I environmental safety standards, ensuring that vessels remain compliant despite heightened regional instability.

Masters and navigating officers must prioritize bridge team management and maintain heightened situational awareness when transiting high-risk areas. These officers should conduct thorough pre-transit security briefings, verify the functionality of Long-Range Identification and Tracking (LRIT) systems, and establish clear communication protocols with naval coalition forces. Understanding the escalation of force procedures is critical for ensuring the safety of the crew and the vessel during potential maritime security incidents in these volatile international waters.

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