Bernstein sees long-term oil price around $75/barrel

Bernstein has issued a critical market update projecting a long-term oil price of $75 per barrel, a benchmark essential for equity valuation across the global maritime energy sector. Analyzing data from the 50 largest listed oil and gas companies, analyst Neil Beveridge highlights rising marginal extraction costs and a tightening reserves outlook. For the tanker segment, including VLCCs and Suezmax vessels, these price dynamics directly influence bunker fuel procurement strategies and voyage planning efficiency at major hubs like Singapore and Fujairah.

Fluctuating oil prices significantly impact compliance with MARPOL Annex VI, which mandates strict limits on sulfur oxide emissions. As fuel costs shift, operators must balance the economic burden of compliant VLSFO or MGO against the long-term capital expenditure of installing Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems, or scrubbers, to meet IMO 2020 standards. Furthermore, SOLAS Chapter II-2 requirements regarding fuel oil safety and flashpoint testing remain paramount, as shifting supply chains may introduce lower-quality fuel blends that complicate engine room maintenance and onboard safety management systems.

Chief engineers and second engineers must prepare for increased fuel quality monitoring and rigorous onboard testing protocols as market volatility persists. Given the potential for varying fuel grades, engine room teams should prioritize centrifuge efficiency and fuel system maintenance to prevent catastrophic machinery failure. Navigating officers must also optimize voyage planning to account for fuel consumption patterns, ensuring that vessel performance remains aligned with the economic realities dictated by these evolving global oil price benchmarks.